Law of Diminishing Returns
It was pointed out that when this article on Law of Diminishing Returns was opened it was blank. It is now spring and working the land beckons and there is no time to write an updated article. I have inserted an old article written in a different style (more of a story). It contains old statistics, however the concepts remains valid today. The Law of Diminishing Returns truly relates not only to the physical decline of our infrastructure such as roads, bridges, schools, etc., but also to our culture’s planned obsolescence which makes objects useless before they wear out. Hopefully next winter a more updated article will replace this one.
How In the World Did I Get Here?
After purchasing a piece of land in Northern Vermont, Lisa and I decided it was time to move on to the land. Starry-eyed with idealism we began to move all of our tools including a tractor and a 1967 Ford dump truck named Norman to Vermont. Every trip to Vermont was an adventure. The biggest adventure, however, was moving Norman and the tractor from storage in the Adirondacks to our property. Norman had not been registered or started for two years and we decided it would be better to drive it after dark.
Our plan was to drive to the Adirondacks from Pennsylvania at night. In the morning we would load the tractor onto Norman and sleep the rest of the day. We then would drive all night under the cloak of darkness. When we arrived our luck began to drift away. The truck, of course, didn’t start. The tractor had a flat tire and it began to rain. We worked all day and with Norman running and the tractor loaded headed down the road at dusk without any sleep. We were both covered with grease from working on Norman and the tractor. I was driving Norman with Lisa following. Three miles down the road Norman stopped running. I got out, lifted the hood, and aimlessly poked around at the engine. I was wet, tired, greasy, and nervous about being caught alongside the road with this ugly, old, beat up, multicolored truck. I jumped back in Norman and he started. “Norman, I really didn’t mean what I said, you know, the part about you being old and ugly.”
I got back out to discuss the situation with Lisa. Should we continue? After all I didn’t even know what I did to fix it. We unanimously decided to go for it. From here on out our luck changed drastically. With my foot down to the floor we raced through the back roads of New York and Vermont at a screaming 40 miles per hour reaching high speeds of 50 miles per hour downhill. Our route went through the middle of Burlington, Vermont hoping to slide through unnoticed. We were behind schedule and it was getting light out as we drove into Burlington. I was low on gas so I pulled into a gas station. The gas station was not opened yet but while we were in the parking area a police car drove by and fortunately did not look our way. We continued up route 7. My heart sank after spotting another police car stopped at a stop sign ready to drive onto route 7. I had to drive right in front of two police officers sitting at the stop sign. Again I was lucky. They were both looking down as I glided by.
The rest of the trip was uneventful and we reached our destination. The woods and brush were too thick to park Norman. We had to cut down trees to provide enough space to pull off the road. We spent hours making room for Norman and our pickup truck. At last we were done and went down to the creek to get water to wash up. It was May and the water was freezing. After getting clean we crawled into the back of our pick-up truck to sleep. Not having any sleep for days we slept for 18 hours.
In the years to come Norman and the tractor played an integral role in building our homestead. They moved rocks, wood, and dirt and year after year took such a beating. Throughout the years both Norman and the tractor’s health declined to a point that it was too expensive to do the repairs and we could no longer afford to keep them. The tractor stopped running and I was able to sell it to a neighbor. Norman was a mess. Many of the lights were broken, the dump no longer worked, the door windows were blown out in a winter wind-snow storm, and the list went on. One spring I worked on Norman for a few hours and was able to finally get it started. I climbed in the drivers seat and drove Norman for the last time to the junkyard. Half way to the junkyard I had a flat with no spare and kept right on driving hoping I wouldn’t get pulled over. It was hard seeing the fate of Norman. This fate is well known to mechanics as the nickel and dime theory. Material goods seem to have a life span and the wear and tear becomes greater and greater and overrides the usefulness of the object, thus the phrase “the car will nickel and dime you to death.” This theory is also known as the “Law of Diminishing Returns”.
Much of our infrastructure, the basic material framework of our society such as roads, bridges, power lines, oil and gas pipelines was built many years ago and is past due for repairs. As the infrastructure gets older, the cost of repairs in both energy and money increases.
In the United States the effects that corrosion has on highways, pipelines, bridges, electric transmission lines, etc. alone is estimated at 276 billion dollars per year. These costs increase from year to year. For example, corrosion of utilities equipment (gas, water, electric, communications, etc.) cost 42.3 billion in 1997 and rose to 47.9 billion in 1998. This was an increase of 9.3% in only one year’s time.1 An EPA survey estimated that in 1997 it would cost 138.4 billion dollars to repair or replace aging water systems in the United States. They also estimated by 2001 this figure would rise to 300 billion dollars.2 In our country right now one out of every five miles (234,000 miles total) of interstate roads is in poor condition. One out of three bridges needs repairs and one out of every four miles (200,000 miles total) of wastewater pipeline needs repair or replacement immediately. If these repairs are ignored many times the costs increase dramatically. In 1992 a small water leak was found in a Chicago pipeline. They did not have 10,000 dollars to fix the leak and the pipeline ruptured. The final cost was over one billion dollars. The aging infrastructure also increases other costs. Many of the bridges that have structural problems have lowered weight limits. Many trucks now travel longer distances to avoid these bridges. This increases energy use, wear and tear, and shipping costs. These increases in costs and energy to repair our infrastructure are also extended to the rest of the world.3
Who will pay the increasing costs of infrastructure repair, along with the rising environmental and social costs? Until recently the Law of Diminishing Returns always referred to the material object wearing out to the point that the cost of repair was greater than the cost of replacement. This picture has been modified through technology. Now many of the material goods that we consume become obsolete long before wearing out short-circuiting the Law of Diminishing Returns. This adds to the increasing waste disposal problem of which the United States leads the world. The United States with 6% of the world’s population produces 50% of the world’s garbage! If there were one other country like us, together we would throw away enough to equal the total garbage of the entire world. The same 6% needs to use 25-30% of the world’s energy to accomplish this. If there were three other countries using this amount of energy that would be 24% of the world’s population using 100% of the energy leaving 76% of the population with no energy.
When we started our house building we lived in a one-room cabin without electricity or running water. We soon added on and had a simple electrical system charged by driving our car to work and back. Those simple days included two incandescent lights and a radio that had to be moved around the house. We soon learned that these lights burned up our electricity quickly and by changing to more efficient lighting we did not have to charge the batteries as often. Having what seemed to be more electricity, we purchased more lights and found ourselves charging the batteries as much as before. I met Jeff who set me on my solar panel road. He had two small panels and a set of batteries for sale. The solar panels were hooked up and by alternating the electricity made with the sun with the electricity made with our car we were able to power more lights and a water pump. Yes, our standard of living was increasing by leaps and bounds. The rest of the story is just a matter of time. More solar panels were added and we had so much power coming in from the sun we needed to add a gizmo to control the electrical flow from the panels to the batteries. To operate any regular appliance the direct current produced by the solar panels had to be converted to alternating current. An inverter/battery charger was added to fulfill our wants. We now had enough electricity to power a computer, which we acquired second hand. A washing machine was added and of course by this point there was lighting in every room of the house. Let’s not forget the electric coffee grinder so we could have the energy to put all this together. How did we get to this point? It all seems like a blurry dream and when I awoke it was all just there.
At present many of our environmental problems, including population growth, seem to be increasing exponentially. This exponential affront on the environment can be considered to be the result of three factors: population (P), technology (T), and affluence (A). These three factors result in the impact (I) on the Earth. Using these three factors an equation is derived: I = P X T X A. It is impossible to give numbers to this equation but instead gives a concept or picture to work with.4
A rise in any of the three factors seems to multiply the effects of the other two resulting in a greater increase than expected. In looking at the population (P) actor, the impact is first increased by the sheer magnitude of individuals. In simple terms, when the population doubles the carbon dioxide output by breathing, food and water requirements, along with all the other needs increases. Secondly, when individuals interact with one another an increase in the other two factors, technology (T) and (A) affluence, follows causing further impact.
The results of using obsolete technology in the Soviet Union and the other communist countries were tragic. As a society they were unable to increase their technology to the point that would decrease their pollution causing many health problems. The lack of technology also prevented them from mobilizing the energy needed to hold their society together leading in part to their collapse. I remember seeing pictures of children playing with their faces black from the pollution of industry. Even though higher technology decreases the need for energy and pollution in operating, the total resource use and pollution actually increases. The purchases of the latest in CD and video technologies have actually increased the draw down of resources causing more pollution. New developments appear almost daily with consumers trying to keep up. This need for more technology increases throughput in the long run. As old technology is outdated newer technology must take its place. The increase in technology allows the population and affluence to rise.
The last factor is affluence, which is the ability to obtain a sufficient supply of material goods. This ability usually increases with time. The effect of affluence is demonstrated by the prolific use of the computer. The computer has the ability to work fast so more resources can be moved through the production line. Shipping is made easier so the consumer no longer has to wait long for their product. Now shopping can even be done without leaving the house through the Internet. This fast pace of resource movement through our society has stimulated the economy, making it possible for individuals to purchase more, using resources at an exponential rate which raises the affluence of a society.
At first the increase in technology seems to decrease pollution but what it actually does is distributes the pollution outward so the population can no longer see it. For example, years ago the smog in many of our cities was so bad that our government passed the Clean Air Act. Many of the factories had to increase the height of their smokestacks and install scrubbers to reduce pollution. Within a few years the cities had cleaner air, which was touted as an environmental success story. When taking a closer look, the pollution that came out of the tall smokestacks did not land in the cities but floated to the New England States. Many of the lakes in these states have decreased populations of fish and some are completely devoid of fish. The scrubbers generally produce 6% more carbon dioxide increasing global warming.5
By distributing the pollution, the effects are not so obvious. For example the effects of global warming are far reaching and in many respects unexpected. Scientists are now finding unwanted cycles known as positive feedbacks that are starting to appear among nature’s cycles. An example of this is the release of methane from the permafrost. It has been found that large deposits of methane are trapped in the permafrost area surrounding the north polar ice cap. Except for a few inches at the surface where thawing occurs in the summer months, the ground is frozen to great depths. As found through experience, white reflects the sun’s heat, while black or brown absorbs the sun’s heat. As global warming occurs the temperature raises and the ice at the polar region recedes exposing more ground. Since the ice is white less heat will be reflected, but also since the ground is dark more heat will be absorbed. This heat increases the Earth’s temperature, but also just as important the southern most permafrost will begin to melt. As the permafrost melts methane is released. Methane has 25 times the ability to hold in heat than carbon dioxide. As the atmospheric methane concentration increases the Earth will warm melting more permafrost and releasing more methane. Large deposits of methane have been found trapped in areas of the ocean floors. The same cycle is thought to occur. The warming of the oceans leads to methane release adding to global warming. There is scientific evidence that both of these positive feedback cycles are now underway.6
Can it be that the world is on the right path? If it’s not the right path how did we get here? Are there other options and if so how much time do we have? These are just a few of the questions we are faced with during this time. Unfortunately future generations are depending on us for the answers.
1 www.corrosioncost.com/utilities/index.htm
2 www.asce.org
3 www.ce.memphis.edu/1101/interesting_stuff/infrastructure.html
4 Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, The Population Explosion, Simon and Schuster, 1990, p. 58-59.
5 Senator Al Gore, Earth I the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit, Houghton Mifflin Company, 1992, p. 82.
6 Stephen H. Schneider, Global Warming, Sierra Club Books, 1989, p. 47-48.
How In the World Did I Get Here?
After purchasing a piece of land in Northern Vermont, Lisa and I decided it was time to move on to the land. Starry-eyed with idealism we began to move all of our tools including a tractor and a 1967 Ford dump truck named Norman to Vermont. Every trip to Vermont was an adventure. The biggest adventure, however, was moving Norman and the tractor from storage in the Adirondacks to our property. Norman had not been registered or started for two years and we decided it would be better to drive it after dark.
Our plan was to drive to the Adirondacks from Pennsylvania at night. In the morning we would load the tractor onto Norman and sleep the rest of the day. We then would drive all night under the cloak of darkness. When we arrived our luck began to drift away. The truck, of course, didn’t start. The tractor had a flat tire and it began to rain. We worked all day and with Norman running and the tractor loaded headed down the road at dusk without any sleep. We were both covered with grease from working on Norman and the tractor. I was driving Norman with Lisa following. Three miles down the road Norman stopped running. I got out, lifted the hood, and aimlessly poked around at the engine. I was wet, tired, greasy, and nervous about being caught alongside the road with this ugly, old, beat up, multicolored truck. I jumped back in Norman and he started. “Norman, I really didn’t mean what I said, you know, the part about you being old and ugly.”
I got back out to discuss the situation with Lisa. Should we continue? After all I didn’t even know what I did to fix it. We unanimously decided to go for it. From here on out our luck changed drastically. With my foot down to the floor we raced through the back roads of New York and Vermont at a screaming 40 miles per hour reaching high speeds of 50 miles per hour downhill. Our route went through the middle of Burlington, Vermont hoping to slide through unnoticed. We were behind schedule and it was getting light out as we drove into Burlington. I was low on gas so I pulled into a gas station. The gas station was not opened yet but while we were in the parking area a police car drove by and fortunately did not look our way. We continued up route 7. My heart sank after spotting another police car stopped at a stop sign ready to drive onto route 7. I had to drive right in front of two police officers sitting at the stop sign. Again I was lucky. They were both looking down as I glided by.
The rest of the trip was uneventful and we reached our destination. The woods and brush were too thick to park Norman. We had to cut down trees to provide enough space to pull off the road. We spent hours making room for Norman and our pickup truck. At last we were done and went down to the creek to get water to wash up. It was May and the water was freezing. After getting clean we crawled into the back of our pick-up truck to sleep. Not having any sleep for days we slept for 18 hours.
In the years to come Norman and the tractor played an integral role in building our homestead. They moved rocks, wood, and dirt and year after year took such a beating. Throughout the years both Norman and the tractor’s health declined to a point that it was too expensive to do the repairs and we could no longer afford to keep them. The tractor stopped running and I was able to sell it to a neighbor. Norman was a mess. Many of the lights were broken, the dump no longer worked, the door windows were blown out in a winter wind-snow storm, and the list went on. One spring I worked on Norman for a few hours and was able to finally get it started. I climbed in the drivers seat and drove Norman for the last time to the junkyard. Half way to the junkyard I had a flat with no spare and kept right on driving hoping I wouldn’t get pulled over. It was hard seeing the fate of Norman. This fate is well known to mechanics as the nickel and dime theory. Material goods seem to have a life span and the wear and tear becomes greater and greater and overrides the usefulness of the object, thus the phrase “the car will nickel and dime you to death.” This theory is also known as the “Law of Diminishing Returns”.
Much of our infrastructure, the basic material framework of our society such as roads, bridges, power lines, oil and gas pipelines was built many years ago and is past due for repairs. As the infrastructure gets older, the cost of repairs in both energy and money increases.
In the United States the effects that corrosion has on highways, pipelines, bridges, electric transmission lines, etc. alone is estimated at 276 billion dollars per year. These costs increase from year to year. For example, corrosion of utilities equipment (gas, water, electric, communications, etc.) cost 42.3 billion in 1997 and rose to 47.9 billion in 1998. This was an increase of 9.3% in only one year’s time.1 An EPA survey estimated that in 1997 it would cost 138.4 billion dollars to repair or replace aging water systems in the United States. They also estimated by 2001 this figure would rise to 300 billion dollars.2 In our country right now one out of every five miles (234,000 miles total) of interstate roads is in poor condition. One out of three bridges needs repairs and one out of every four miles (200,000 miles total) of wastewater pipeline needs repair or replacement immediately. If these repairs are ignored many times the costs increase dramatically. In 1992 a small water leak was found in a Chicago pipeline. They did not have 10,000 dollars to fix the leak and the pipeline ruptured. The final cost was over one billion dollars. The aging infrastructure also increases other costs. Many of the bridges that have structural problems have lowered weight limits. Many trucks now travel longer distances to avoid these bridges. This increases energy use, wear and tear, and shipping costs. These increases in costs and energy to repair our infrastructure are also extended to the rest of the world.3
Who will pay the increasing costs of infrastructure repair, along with the rising environmental and social costs? Until recently the Law of Diminishing Returns always referred to the material object wearing out to the point that the cost of repair was greater than the cost of replacement. This picture has been modified through technology. Now many of the material goods that we consume become obsolete long before wearing out short-circuiting the Law of Diminishing Returns. This adds to the increasing waste disposal problem of which the United States leads the world. The United States with 6% of the world’s population produces 50% of the world’s garbage! If there were one other country like us, together we would throw away enough to equal the total garbage of the entire world. The same 6% needs to use 25-30% of the world’s energy to accomplish this. If there were three other countries using this amount of energy that would be 24% of the world’s population using 100% of the energy leaving 76% of the population with no energy.
When we started our house building we lived in a one-room cabin without electricity or running water. We soon added on and had a simple electrical system charged by driving our car to work and back. Those simple days included two incandescent lights and a radio that had to be moved around the house. We soon learned that these lights burned up our electricity quickly and by changing to more efficient lighting we did not have to charge the batteries as often. Having what seemed to be more electricity, we purchased more lights and found ourselves charging the batteries as much as before. I met Jeff who set me on my solar panel road. He had two small panels and a set of batteries for sale. The solar panels were hooked up and by alternating the electricity made with the sun with the electricity made with our car we were able to power more lights and a water pump. Yes, our standard of living was increasing by leaps and bounds. The rest of the story is just a matter of time. More solar panels were added and we had so much power coming in from the sun we needed to add a gizmo to control the electrical flow from the panels to the batteries. To operate any regular appliance the direct current produced by the solar panels had to be converted to alternating current. An inverter/battery charger was added to fulfill our wants. We now had enough electricity to power a computer, which we acquired second hand. A washing machine was added and of course by this point there was lighting in every room of the house. Let’s not forget the electric coffee grinder so we could have the energy to put all this together. How did we get to this point? It all seems like a blurry dream and when I awoke it was all just there.
At present many of our environmental problems, including population growth, seem to be increasing exponentially. This exponential affront on the environment can be considered to be the result of three factors: population (P), technology (T), and affluence (A). These three factors result in the impact (I) on the Earth. Using these three factors an equation is derived: I = P X T X A. It is impossible to give numbers to this equation but instead gives a concept or picture to work with.4
A rise in any of the three factors seems to multiply the effects of the other two resulting in a greater increase than expected. In looking at the population (P) actor, the impact is first increased by the sheer magnitude of individuals. In simple terms, when the population doubles the carbon dioxide output by breathing, food and water requirements, along with all the other needs increases. Secondly, when individuals interact with one another an increase in the other two factors, technology (T) and (A) affluence, follows causing further impact.
The results of using obsolete technology in the Soviet Union and the other communist countries were tragic. As a society they were unable to increase their technology to the point that would decrease their pollution causing many health problems. The lack of technology also prevented them from mobilizing the energy needed to hold their society together leading in part to their collapse. I remember seeing pictures of children playing with their faces black from the pollution of industry. Even though higher technology decreases the need for energy and pollution in operating, the total resource use and pollution actually increases. The purchases of the latest in CD and video technologies have actually increased the draw down of resources causing more pollution. New developments appear almost daily with consumers trying to keep up. This need for more technology increases throughput in the long run. As old technology is outdated newer technology must take its place. The increase in technology allows the population and affluence to rise.
The last factor is affluence, which is the ability to obtain a sufficient supply of material goods. This ability usually increases with time. The effect of affluence is demonstrated by the prolific use of the computer. The computer has the ability to work fast so more resources can be moved through the production line. Shipping is made easier so the consumer no longer has to wait long for their product. Now shopping can even be done without leaving the house through the Internet. This fast pace of resource movement through our society has stimulated the economy, making it possible for individuals to purchase more, using resources at an exponential rate which raises the affluence of a society.
At first the increase in technology seems to decrease pollution but what it actually does is distributes the pollution outward so the population can no longer see it. For example, years ago the smog in many of our cities was so bad that our government passed the Clean Air Act. Many of the factories had to increase the height of their smokestacks and install scrubbers to reduce pollution. Within a few years the cities had cleaner air, which was touted as an environmental success story. When taking a closer look, the pollution that came out of the tall smokestacks did not land in the cities but floated to the New England States. Many of the lakes in these states have decreased populations of fish and some are completely devoid of fish. The scrubbers generally produce 6% more carbon dioxide increasing global warming.5
By distributing the pollution, the effects are not so obvious. For example the effects of global warming are far reaching and in many respects unexpected. Scientists are now finding unwanted cycles known as positive feedbacks that are starting to appear among nature’s cycles. An example of this is the release of methane from the permafrost. It has been found that large deposits of methane are trapped in the permafrost area surrounding the north polar ice cap. Except for a few inches at the surface where thawing occurs in the summer months, the ground is frozen to great depths. As found through experience, white reflects the sun’s heat, while black or brown absorbs the sun’s heat. As global warming occurs the temperature raises and the ice at the polar region recedes exposing more ground. Since the ice is white less heat will be reflected, but also since the ground is dark more heat will be absorbed. This heat increases the Earth’s temperature, but also just as important the southern most permafrost will begin to melt. As the permafrost melts methane is released. Methane has 25 times the ability to hold in heat than carbon dioxide. As the atmospheric methane concentration increases the Earth will warm melting more permafrost and releasing more methane. Large deposits of methane have been found trapped in areas of the ocean floors. The same cycle is thought to occur. The warming of the oceans leads to methane release adding to global warming. There is scientific evidence that both of these positive feedback cycles are now underway.6
Can it be that the world is on the right path? If it’s not the right path how did we get here? Are there other options and if so how much time do we have? These are just a few of the questions we are faced with during this time. Unfortunately future generations are depending on us for the answers.
1 www.corrosioncost.com/utilities/index.htm
2 www.asce.org
3 www.ce.memphis.edu/1101/interesting_stuff/infrastructure.html
4 Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, The Population Explosion, Simon and Schuster, 1990, p. 58-59.
5 Senator Al Gore, Earth I the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit, Houghton Mifflin Company, 1992, p. 82.
6 Stephen H. Schneider, Global Warming, Sierra Club Books, 1989, p. 47-48.